by AG7 » Mon Feb 24, 2014 5:11 pm
Two things will decide this title from here on in ...
The fixtures we'll have at hand ... and the fixtures between the top four.
Next when we play in the league we'll be three fixtures behind (Sunderland home, Villa home, and Scum away) ... another which will potentially be in hand later in April is Liverpool away.
While we keep these pending, Chelsea played West Brom away (and drew) but doesn't count as we still need to win ours against Sunderland to get back to equal points as they are three pts ahead ... so mark one of those pending fixtures for us as a must win.
Next Chelsea will play Fulham away, while we miss our Scum away game. Then Chelsea plays Spurs at home while we miss Villa at home. So if Chelsea wins these next two as well, then yes they are 9 points ahead of us and we have three MUST WINS pending to just get back to equal terms. However if they drop points at Fulham away or Spurs at home, we'll know how many points we need from those 9 available (from our pending games) so it tilts in our favor. Similarly, when we will miss our Liverpool away game, Chelsea will be playing Swansea away ...
Arsenal, similarly have played Scum on the weekend we missed our game to weather and drew, but again doesnt count as they still are two points ahead of us so our missed game remains a MUST WIN for us ... And on other gameweeks when we will miss games, Arsenal play Stoke away, Swansea home and West Ham home, but given that they are still in the FA Cup as well, they'll be missing some of those and piling up games like us as well.
So the pending games will give us an advantage if Chelsea has dropped points in those weeks when we don't play ... or in other games by the time we get around to playing our pending games ... if however they take maximum points, then the pending games become an issue for us as they'll all become MUST WINS for us and thus adding pressure ...
The second factor I suggested will decide the title this season is the following four fixtures amongst the top-4:
22 March: Chelsea v Arsenal
29 March: Arsenal v Man City
19 April: Liverpool v Man City
26 April: Liverpool v Chelsea
And this puts everyone on equal footing, as all have two fixture remaining over other top-4 sides ... So what if we have to go to Liverpool, Chelsea too have to go there ... we have to play Arsenal away but so what Arsenal has to go away to the Stamford Bridge ... Liverpool does have advantage as they play both big games at home, while we we have both away games ...
Pretty evens I say at this stage for all four then ... I'd just keep an eye on Chelsea dropping points while we keep our games in hand. That's the only thing that tilts it in our favor and if they pick up a lot of points in those games while we are tied elsewhere then when it comes to us playing our games to catch up, we'll have added pressure of catching up to whatever that points tally is.