Cast your mind back to the 31st March at around 4:15pm. A Manchester City side that had won every league game at home had just gone 1-3 down to Sunderland after 55 minutes of play. The home fans couldn’t believe what they were seeing. Their team had been incredible for the first half of the season and looked to be bolting away with the title. However with the finish line in sight the juggernaut was running out of steam. Something had slipped. The dream of the first title for 44 years was fading. Players and staff that had been so cool and collected were now looking frustrated and increasingly desperate.
Theories were put forward as to why City lost league games against Sunderland, Everton and Swansea. Yaya Toure going to the Africa Cup of Nations was a big miss. The media was putting too much pressure on the team. Stefan Savic was just not good enough. The refs were against City. Carlos Tevez departure to Argentina had left the team short of striking options. Whilst these all may have been contributing factors, the simple fact was that City had lost its mojo. The creative spark had disappeared and the team was piecing together results due to the quality of its playing staff rather than the quality of its play. Make no doubt about it. The pressure of the title race had got to them. City had choked.
So back to the 31st of March at 4:15pm. Seb Larsson had put the Black Cats 3-1 up. Only United had previously put 3 goals past the City defence this season (Charity Shield and FA Cup) and they went on to win both games. The signs were not good. However, inspiration from Mario Balotelli and Aleksandr Kolarov dragged City out of the mire and salvaged a 3-all draw. It was a disappointing point but a point nonetheless. The title challenge was in freefall but the point was to prove invaluable.
Rock bottom came the following week at the Emirates. A lacklustre display saw City lose 1-0 to Arsenal. It was a laboured performance lacking in both tempo and inspiration. Mario Balotelli collected yet another red card to compound the loss. He was out for the next 3 games.
Roberto Mancini then made the declaration that not only marked the occasion but began the revival. The pressure had reached boiling point, but with two words Mancini released the pressure that was strangling his team. “Eez finished,” he said referring to the title challenge. Whether it was intentional or not, it proved to be a masterstroke. As City was no longer chasing the title, the pressure was off. With no pressure the team set about reclaiming its mojo. Carlos Tevez replaced Balotelli in the line-up and set about restoring his reputation with some impressive displays, best exemplified with a hat trick against Norwich. A sense of freedom came back to City’s play and the goals began to flow again.
Mancini’s quote also made an impact at Old Trafford. The club that had spent the past 20 years fighting for titles now had no-one to battle against. The intensity of the contest evaporated, and results began to slip. Defensive frailties exposed in European and Cup competitions were being exploited. Firstly, there was a loss to Wigan. An 8 point lead became 5. A fading draw against Everton brought the margin back to 3. The momentum had swung. City was back in form and United had the staggers. The shift in momentum came to fruition in the derby. After an early struggle City controlled the game for the last 80 minutes with a 1-0 win- giving the fans plenty to sing about. The result flattered United as their display was one of reaction and frustration. City was back in front on goal difference, and most importantly, back in control of its destiny.
With spirits rising City took this momentum into the away game against Newcastle. As this was the early Sunday game, United knew that if Newcastle could do them a favour, they could regain the title ascendency. However, when news of City’s 2-0 win filtered across Old Trafford the atmosphere for the start of their game against Swansea was one of despondency. The 2-0 win was a listless performance with little celebration, no fanfare. Furthermore, the result made no impact on the goal difference which remains at 8.
Taking a look at the goal difference, here is a list of the main contributors to City and United’s GD column:
City +63
Norwich +9
Blackburn +7
Man United +6
Tottenham +5
Sunderland -1
United +55
Wolves +8
Bolton +8
Arsenal +7
Fulham +6
Man City -6
It’s interesting that City and United have handed hidings out to differing teams. Sunderland made the worst impact on City’s goal difference while United’s bogey team is City. The derby results caused a 12 point swing in the goal difference. This means that United has actually got a better goal difference over the other 18 teams. The derbies, and the 1-6 in particular, has made all the difference.
Which brings us to now. Here we are. The final week. The final hurdle. The final 90 minutes plus injury time. A win for City and the title is secured; only a 1 goal victory and a 9 goal winning margin by United could cause a slip (goal difference would be the same but United would have scored more goals.) A loss or draw gives United the opportunity to snatch an unlikely title. Whilst United crave their 20th championship, even the staunchest fan would have to concede this means so much more for City. This is the opportunity to end 44 years of pain, suffering and plain old being made to feel second best. It will all evaporate in a flash. One more win, just one more win.
The team with the worst away record in 17th place take on the team top of the table with the best home record. Easy, right? Well… perhaps. West Brom away was supposed to be easy for City. Swansea away was supposed to be easy. Sunderland at home was supposed to be easy. The beauty of football is that things don’t always pan out as they are supposed to. Both the club and supporters have wrestled with an inconsistency that has brought on some amazing victories and shocking defeats. The FA Cup victory went some way to putting paid to this, but some habits are hard to break. Bizarre results can and do occur. And Manchester City is no stranger to bizarre results.
There is a subtext to this match which suggests the bizarre could occur. QPR were the first team to really challenge City in the Premier League this season. In November the R’s led and drew level before Yaya Toure rescued the game for the blues. Neil Warnock was manager that day. Of course he has since been replaced by the ex-United player ex-City manager Mark Hughes. The man who was charged with setting City on its upward trajectory was fired before he could reap the rewards. If any manager can tap into and exploit the old City mentality it will be Mark Hughes. If any opposing manager knows the weaknesses of the City side it will be Hughes. If any manager is motivated by a sense of revenge it is Mark Hughes.
There’s more. The Superhoops have three City old boys in its ranks: Shaun Wright-Phillips, Nedum Onouha and Joey Barton. How motivated will they be for this game? There is also some tenuous United links in the side too. Anton Ferdinand would love to help his brother win another trophy. And of course QPR has its own relegation battle to focus on. Should Bolton win away at Stoke, the R’s would need at least a point to ensure survival, due to their superior goal difference (as they would be equal on points.) The Superhoops will be desperate for a result and will push City all the way.
Players to watch.
Djibril Cisse. Which Cisse will we get? He’s played 7 games. He’s scored in 5 of them and been sent off in the other 2. If QPR stay up it will be thanks to his goals. Cisse has been a fantastic signing by Mark Hughes and will be a real handful for the City defence.
Alejandro Faurlin. The Argentinian midfielder will no doubt move to a bigger club next season. He’s a quality player and provides the glue that holds the midfield together.
Paddy Kenny. He’s had an inconsistent season in goal but in the games he’s played well in he has really shone. If he has an on day City may have some problems getting through.
Yaya Toure. When a game is there to be won Yaya has the uncanny knack of creating chances for himself. Yaya is a player that laughs in the face of the typical City tag. He admitted in an interview during the week that he doesn’t know a great deal about City’s history. This is probably a good thing.
Sergio Aguero. The majority of Kun’s 22 Premier League goals have been at home. This is a home game. Put 1 and 1 together.
Joe Hart. How many saves has Joe made this season that no other keeper in the world could make? Hart has had an imperious season and is building a legend similar to that of Schmeichel.
Referee for the game is Mike Dean.
Mike Dean’s City Record 2011-12
Refereed 4 games. 4 wins. 5 City yellows/6 opposition yellows, 2 City pens.
QPR Record
Refereed 3, 1 win, 2 losses. QPR 8 yellows/5 opposition yellows. Opposition 2 pens.
Odds. Manchester City 1.10 Draw 9.50 QPR 16.00 There are odds about of 2.10 for both teams to score/neither side score. Should City take control of the match early, there could be a lack of defensive intensity which could lead to consolation goals. Despite this, 1.65 for one team to score is the better bet.
For Manchester City, this game is about mentality and execution. The side need to be determined and show the attitude that if they are patient and play with the same work rate of the past 5 weeks then victory will follow. Should things not go their way early, if they stick to their principles of the past 5 weeks then victory will follow. If City can execute as they have done over the past 5 weeks then surely victory, the title, the glory, will follow.
The ultimate bragging rights are up for grabs. If City were to fail, the ridicule would be crippling. The songs, put downs and snide remarks will haunt the side for next season and beyond. However, if City can get over the line the victory would be nothing short of magnificent. It would dwarf the FA Cup victory of last season and truly show the world that the Manchester City dynasty is here to stay. That cup victory put “Typical City” on its knees. To win the title would consign the phrase to the history books. The first title victory in a fans life is always the most memorable, the sweetest. The players will be immortalised and stories of the season will become legend. History beckons. Manchester City fans can hold their head up high and sing with conviction, pride and the true knowledge that “City, City, the best team in the land and all the world.”
A MASSIVE thanks to Dazby of www.mancityfans.net for this excellent match preview