PrezIke wrote:BlueinBosnia wrote:PrezIke wrote:Saul Goodman wrote:Wtf? How do we keep getting drawn away? 7 in a row
Seriously.
I also know we got a okay-ish draw again, but we have drawn Prem teams nearly every time for a while now (I know more likely now) except last round, and then it's against one of the best Championship clubs this season.
There's a 30% chance of us being drawn against another Prem team in the 3rd round each year.
This year, there was a 39% chance of us being drawn against a Prem team in the 4th round (didn't happen).
This year, there was a 47% chance of us being drawn against a Prem team in the 5th round.
This year, there was a 71% chance of us being drawn against a Prem team in the 6th round.
Overall, there was a 4% chance of us being drawn against a Prem team in each round. That didn't happen. Even if it did, it wouldn't be particularly unusual.
There was also a 0.3% chance of us being drawn away to a Prem team in each round. That's also not particularly unbelievable odds, even if it had have happened.
As for being drawn away 7 times in a row - it's also not overly unlikely. There are (about to be) 5 of us in my household, each with a 2 in their day of birth (2nd, 23rd, 28th, etc.). That's twice as unlikely to happen as us being drawn away 7 times in a row, even though it's not an unbelievable occurrence in and of itself.
http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/ ... s-12662492In the FA Cup and League Cup this season and last, the Blues have been drawn away in the last nine ties, and each time they have been pitted against opposition either from the Premier League or the top six promotion places in the Championship.
In fact, their draw away to promotion-chasing Huddersfield in the fifth round of this season's FA Cup was the ONLY time in those nine draws they have not drawn a Premier League club.
We put the statistics to Manchester University lecturer Kees van Schaik, an expert in probability, and he came up with the incredible result.
He calculated that the chances of being drawn away nine times on the bounce are around 512-1.
And he then worked out that the odds of those nine draws all being against one of the top 26 teams still in the competition comes in at 199-1.
And if you combine the probability of the two, the result is enough to make even the sanest fan a little paranoid. Said Dr van Schaik: “The probability that Man City draws against a top team AND is the away team in all nine below draws is as small as approximately 0.00001, which in terms of odds is, pretty much, one in 100,000."
That stat is calculated based on the notion that the top 26 stays constant, which it doesn't. Huddersfield were hovering around the relegation zone at points last season when draws were made, Norwich (the first team in the streak) are now 8th in the Championship, and were much lower when previous rounds were drawn, and Aston Villa are 17th. Open it up to positions that these teams were in when each round was drawn, and the odds are much, much higher.
Actually looking at the games, have we been drawn against any team that was in the Top 8 of the Prem when a draw was made? Looking at the 9:
Norwich - Relegation zone
Villa - Relegation zone
Chelsea - Around 12th
Swansea - Around relegation zone
Rags - Around 9th, I think
West Ham - 11th when the draw was made (from my recollection)
Crystal Palace - Relegation contenders
Huddersfield - Championship
Boro - Relegation contenders
So, 5 relegation contenders (arguably with more pressing issues on their plates), 3 that were in mid-table positions, and one outside the top flight.