Run for Top 4 - The Way I See It

[Niall Quinns Discopants]

Might sound controversial looking at the league table right now but I reckon it's between us and Villa.

Liverpool have two games more than us and Villa and one more than Tottingham and I can't believe that all three teams would slip. And anyone who has seen Liverpool this season know that they lack any sort of team spirit and mentality to consistently win games, so I simply can't see them making top 4.

Tottenham, this is where it get's interesting. They are two points ahead of us and five points ahead of Villa RIGHT NOW with both us and Villa having a game in hand. However, if you look at their fixture list, they have by far the hardest out of the three teams, them having to play EVERYONE in top 3 at this stage of the season and trip to ours which as far as away games go is as hard as any in league. They are also still in FA Cup with home replay against Fulham and most likely at least semi-final to still come. Knowing Harry, he will put more emphasis on FA Cup than league if he sees chance to win it again. Furthermore, they are without Defoe and while Crouch, Keane and Pavlychenko are all very decent strikers, none of them are prolific like Defoe has been this season. Most importantly, none of them stretch defences like Defoe does meaning the form of Lennon (When he gets back) is SURE to suffer. Also, Spurs defence is average at best and they have been dead lucky in lot of games this season I've seen. I can see them shifting fair few goals against top 3 and us.

That leaves us and Villa. We have upper hand right now being three points ahead of them. Then again they have by far easier remaining fixture list. BUT they are stil in FA Cup and I'm certain O'Neill will give that lot of emphasis. And they have recently started shifting goals. SO I think the REAL decider might very well be our home game against them in 1st of may.

[Beeks]

I'm pretty much in agreement on the fact I think Villa will be our main rivals....but you can never discount the scousers...

One thing is for sure is it's going to be one of the most exciting finales to a season in the top division that we have ever had as fans under a questionable age ;-)

[ant london]

After the last three performances I am actually getting quite excited. I don't disagree with you re Villa though Antti.....although I've just been listening to Talkshite and they have been covering the ill feeling currently swirling around Villa Park towards Martin O'Neill.

Apparently Villa were booed off the pitch after this weekend's match vs Wolves. Utter madness. Lots of Villa fans calling and texting in saying that O'Neill is "holding Villa back" with his reluctance to change personnel/tactics during matches.

Barmy...but hopefully that kind of unrest could actually work in our favour.

[BlueJohnBlue]

This is how I think it will pan out (done befor the Fulham game)

Current Points 50 potential 80 Forecast 70
Fulham v Man City
Man City v Everton
Man City v Wigan,
Burnley v Man City
Man City v Birmingham
Man City v Man Utd
Arsenal v Man City
Man City v Aston Villa
Man City v Spurs
West Ham v Man City

Current Points 51 potential 75 Forecast 67
Man Utd v Liverpool
Liverpool v Sunderland
Birmingham v Liverpool
Liverpool v Fulham
Liverpool v West Ham
Burnley v Liverpool
Liverpool v Chelsea
Hull v Liverpool

Current Points 52 Potential 79 Forecast 67
Stoke v Tottenham
Tottenham v Portsmouth
Sunderland v Tottenham
Tottenham v Arsenal
Tottenham v Chelsea
Man Utd v Tottenham
Tottenham v Bolton
Man City v Tottenham
Burnley v Tottenham

Current Points 46 Potential 76 Forecast 64
Wigan v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Wolverhampton,
Aston Villa v Sunderland,
Chelsea v Aston Villa
Bolton v Aston Villa,
Portsmouth v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Birmingham,
West Ham v Aston Villa
Man City v Aston Villa,
Aston Villa v Blackburn,

[blue wine]

Might sound controversial looking at the league table right now but I reckon it's between us and Villa.

Liverpool have two games more than us and Villa and one more than Tottingham and I can't believe that all three teams would slip. And anyone who has seen Liverpool this season know that they lack any sort of team spirit and mentality to consistently win games, so I simply can't see them making top 4.

Tottenham, this is where it get's interesting. They are two points ahead of us and five points ahead of Villa RIGHT NOW with both us and Villa having a game in hand. However, if you look at their fixture list, they have by far the hardest out of the three teams, them having to play EVERYONE in top 3 at this stage of the season and trip to ours which as far as away games go is as hard as any in league. They are also still in FA Cup with home replay against Fulham and most likely at least semi-final to still come. Knowing Harry, he will put more emphasis on FA Cup than league if he sees chance to win it again. Furthermore, they are without Defoe and while Crouch, Keane and Pavlychenko are all very decent strikers, none of them are prolific like Defoe has been this season. Most importantly, none of them stretch defences like Defoe does meaning the form of Lennon (When he gets back) is SURE to suffer. Also, Spurs defence is average at best and they have been dead lucky in lot of games this season I've seen. I can see them shifting fair few goals against top 3 and us.

That leaves us and Villa. We have upper hand right now being three points ahead of them. Then again they have by far easier remaining fixture list. BUT they are stil in FA Cup and I'm certain O'Neill will give that lot of emphasis. And they have recently started shifting goals. SO I think the REAL decider might very well be our home game against them in 1st of may.

This ^^

but the next 2 games for villa are gonna be tough... sunderland (H) and Chelski (A)

sunderland are playing well at the mom. and its a must win game for Chelski.
if they don't win one of those games and we beat everton and wigan then we could be looking at a 8-9 pts difference

[Fish111]

Villa are out of it imo. It's between us and Liverpool.

[Swales4ever]

I do agree with You, as I've said Villa has the easiest run but are even the weakest, while Spuds are in front of a mountain (including US) that is just impossible to climb for them. I have only a little concern about how the increasing implosion of Chelskji might affect the run.

I do still continue to write and say - I am scared of Liverpool - for exorcism sake, because I am very respectfull of their power (mascherano, gerrard twice...) and seniority. But You are actually and definitely right. They just need to slip on a draw once more and they will be officially out.

[Im_Spartacus]

Villa are out of it imo. It's between us and Liverpool.

How so.

Liverpool have a possible 21 points to play for and are already 2 points behind us. They are playing quite poorly and are still as prone to a slip up as they were earlier in the season. They are also 4 points behind tottenham who also have a game in hand on them (against us)

We have a possible 27 points to play for, of which 6 of our remaining 9 games are at home. We havent lost at home in over a year.

Even if we can only pick up 15 points from our remaining 9 games, or spurs get 12 points from their remaining 8 games, liverpool would have to win 6 of their remaining 7 to get in front of either us or spurs, and that will not happen.

Liverpool are finished, and interestingly, Everton are now not very far behind them and on a massive hot streak. It could possibly get much worse for liverpool before this season is out

[Esky]

Sorry to be a pedant, but isn't Keane still at Celtic? Or did he go to Spuds?

I think the above's a very fair analysis but it's still too early to discount any of the four for me. In a few games time one side may have fallen away but at the moment the differentials between all of us are only an extra win here or there...still too close to call 4th through 7th for me.

Hopefully Liverpool go all the way in Europa to keep them occupied.

The lack of cup football should stand us in good stead for our horror run in.

[Niall Quinns Discopants]

After the last three performances I am actually getting quite excited. I don't disagree with you re Villa though Antti.....although I've just been listening to Talkshite and they have been covering the ill feeling currently swirling around Villa Park towards Martin O'Neill.

Apparently Villa were booed off the pitch after this weekend's match vs Wolves. Utter madness. Lots of Villa fans calling and texting in saying that O'Neill is "holding Villa back" with his reluctance to change personnel/tactics during matches.

Barmy...but hopefully that kind of unrest could actually work in our favour.

Sounds absolutely bloody crazy that.

O'Neill has done tremendous job for Villa and the reason they ARE doing so well is that O'Neill has been methodical with his approach. Sure they have had money to spend but ALL the teams around them has spend miles more. Media keep harping on about how much we've spend, and rightly so, but it seems to have gone unnoticed that 'Arry has spend over 100m eversince he took a charge.

Sorry to be a pedant, but isn't Keane still at Celtic? Or did he go to Spuds?

Bloody hell! Can't believe I forgot he is on loan there!

[lets all have a disco]

Basically,win all our home games sneak a point here and there away and Boom were top 4 baby.

[Chinners]

As I've said on other 'top 4' threads ... can't rule anyone out at the mo, I think all 4 sides could still be in with a shout with about 3 games to go. Loads to go yet

[BlueJohnBlue]

Another way to look at it is

City 6 home games to go
Dippers 4 home games to go
Spuds 4 home games to go
Villans 4 home games to go

[Alioune DVToure]

Might sound controversial looking at the league table right now but I reckon it's between us and Villa.

Liverpool have two games more than us and Villa and one more than Tottingham and I can't believe that all three teams would slip. And anyone who has seen Liverpool this season know that they lack any sort of team spirit and mentality to consistently win games, so I simply can't see them making top 4.

Tottenham, this is where it get's interesting. They are two points ahead of us and five points ahead of Villa RIGHT NOW with both us and Villa having a game in hand. However, if you look at their fixture list, they have by far the hardest out of the three teams, them having to play EVERYONE in top 3 at this stage of the season and trip to ours which as far as away games go is as hard as any in league. They are also still in FA Cup with home replay against Fulham and most likely at least semi-final to still come. Knowing Harry, he will put more emphasis on FA Cup than league if he sees chance to win it again. Furthermore, they are without Defoe and while Crouch, Keane and Pavlychenko are all very decent strikers, none of them are prolific like Defoe has been this season. Most importantly, none of them stretch defences like Defoe does meaning the form of Lennon (When he gets back) is SURE to suffer. Also, Spurs defence is average at best and they have been dead lucky in lot of games this season I've seen. I can see them shifting fair few goals against top 3 and us.

That leaves us and Villa. We have upper hand right now being three points ahead of them. Then again they have by far easier remaining fixture list. BUT they are stil in FA Cup and I'm certain O'Neill will give that lot of emphasis. And they have recently started shifting goals. SO I think the REAL decider might very well be our home game against them in 1st of may.

I get where you're coming from but if we draw against Villa and lose against Spurs it's really gonna turn everything on its head. Also, Chelsea apart, Liverpool have six VERY winnable games. I wouldn't be astonished to see them end up on 69 points, which would mean us needing to win six of our last nine. It might be a good idea to get this thread made a sticky so people can comment on the racwe for 4th as it takes all of its twists and turns between now and the end of the season.

[Niall Quinns Discopants]

Might sound controversial looking at the league table right now but I reckon it's between us and Villa.

Liverpool have two games more than us and Villa and one more than Tottingham and I can't believe that all three teams would slip. And anyone who has seen Liverpool this season know that they lack any sort of team spirit and mentality to consistently win games, so I simply can't see them making top 4.

Tottenham, this is where it get's interesting. They are two points ahead of us and five points ahead of Villa RIGHT NOW with both us and Villa having a game in hand. However, if you look at their fixture list, they have by far the hardest out of the three teams, them having to play EVERYONE in top 3 at this stage of the season and trip to ours which as far as away games go is as hard as any in league. They are also still in FA Cup with home replay against Fulham and most likely at least semi-final to still come. Knowing Harry, he will put more emphasis on FA Cup than league if he sees chance to win it again. Furthermore, they are without Defoe and while Crouch, Keane and Pavlychenko are all very decent strikers, none of them are prolific like Defoe has been this season. Most importantly, none of them stretch defences like Defoe does meaning the form of Lennon (When he gets back) is SURE to suffer. Also, Spurs defence is average at best and they have been dead lucky in lot of games this season I've seen. I can see them shifting fair few goals against top 3 and us.

That leaves us and Villa. We have upper hand right now being three points ahead of them. Then again they have by far easier remaining fixture list. BUT they are stil in FA Cup and I'm certain O'Neill will give that lot of emphasis. And they have recently started shifting goals. SO I think the REAL decider might very well be our home game against them in 1st of may.

I get where you're coming from but if we draw against Villa and lose against Spurs it's really gonna turn everything on its head. Also, Chelsea apart, Liverpool have six VERY winnable games. I wouldn't be astonished to see them end up on 69 points, which would mean us needing to win six of our last nine. It might be a good idea to get this thread made a sticky so people can comment on the racwe for 4th as it takes all of its twists and turns between now and the end of the season.

HELL NO! There's no way I'm going to make this sticky and take all the ridiculing when it turns out I'm wrong!

On a serious note, I honestly can't see Spurs winning at ours. I really can't. We struggle against "at your face and hoof" teams but have been absolutely excellent for most of the time under Mancini against "ball players". Tottenham are fucking soft team and the thought of Tevez and Jinky running circles around Gareth Bale makes my mouth water.

Villa will be much harder game for us in my opinion.

[Bingo Lewis]

I can't predict who will finish where this season. I'm too nervous and don't want to jinx anything.

[Fish111]

Villa are out of it imo. It's between us and Liverpool.

How so.

Just a feeling John. Experience counts for a lot imo and Gerrard & Torres are getting a good run in the side with each other and they are both excellant players. It'll be a nervous ending to the season as i also think it could go down to the West Ham game for it to be decided.

[Im_Spartacus]

Villa are out of it imo. It's between us and Liverpool.

How so.

Just a feeling John. Experience counts for a lot imo and Gerrard & Torres are getting a good run in the side with each other and they are both excellant players. It'll be a nervous ending to the season as i also think it could go down to the West Ham game for it to be decided.

Their experience does worry me, definately agree with you on that. I just can't see them winning 6 out of 7, even though they are the "easier" fixtures. Birmingham away will be a very tricky one, as potentially will Sunderland this week now they seem to have got themselves together again. Plus they have Chelsea at home who (hopefully) wont be out of the title race by then.

They really have all the odds stacked against them of the 4 teams left in the race

[Douglas Higginbottom]

My thoughts are all on us and the rest are irrelevant. If we get to 70 points it's job done and especially if we do it and dont lose to Ville or Spurs on the way.

All the games we have worry me as if we don't play well it's possible especially away from home that we won't win a game.We have picked up recently in performances although only in half games on occasion but there are some signs that Mancini is seeking to attack a little more.

Biggest game of the season on Wednesday v Everton.

[Niall Quinns Discopants]

Villa are out of it imo. It's between us and Liverpool.

How so.

Just a feeling John. Experience counts for a lot imo and Gerrard & Torres are getting a good run in the side with each other and they are both excellant players. It'll be a nervous ending to the season as i also think it could go down to the West Ham game for it to be decided.

It's not about Gerrard and Torres though is it. Look at some of the losers around them. They got turds like Lucas and Insua getting regular games for them. They got probably the biggest squad in whole league but in Rafa's rotation there's also someone like Fabio Aurelio, Maxi Rodriguez and/or David N'Gog (talented but too young) to complement other dross around them.

Oh, and I've ALWAYS considered Benitez ro be ridiculously overrated manager who has lived on that Champion's League win for a looooooooong time. After they had won Chimp's league a said to Pool supporting mate that they'd NEVER win the league under Benitez as his style simply wasn't suited to England. He laughed at my face and called me fool. Right.

I have to say that I predicted in the start of the season that wouldn't be doing much this season.